Species dynamics in a changing world
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I develop approaches to understand and predict species' dynamics in a world of continuous change: temperature rise, land-use get intensified in some areas while others are abandoned, species are moved from one continent to another.
To achieve this, I use a combination of modelling and data analysis to reveal how species’ life-histories interact with environmental conditions and human intervention, to produce large-scale ecological patterns. I favour models as tools to address these questions for theoretical or applied studies. I juggle between modelling techniques to best approach the problem at hand, but I like those emphasizing mechanisms. |
Multiscale drivers of species dynamics
Understanding which biological processes (e.g., juvenile survival, dispersal distances) are associated with spatial dynamics is essential to predict the effects of environmental change on biodiversity patterns. This is challenged by the number and complexity of interactions at play. Recent advances in computing power, modelling and statistical analysis techniques now open the way for novel, exciting research directions. I like to combine two approaches: bottom-up, process-based models, and top-down, inferential methods.
Process-based modelling
I use different types of models (matrix population models, individual-based models) to understand how life-history traits drive species' dynamics. I am particularly interested in the drivers of movement.
Understanding which biological processes (e.g., juvenile survival, dispersal distances) are associated with spatial dynamics is essential to predict the effects of environmental change on biodiversity patterns. This is challenged by the number and complexity of interactions at play. Recent advances in computing power, modelling and statistical analysis techniques now open the way for novel, exciting research directions. I like to combine two approaches: bottom-up, process-based models, and top-down, inferential methods.
Process-based modelling
I use different types of models (matrix population models, individual-based models) to understand how life-history traits drive species' dynamics. I am particularly interested in the drivers of movement.
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For plants, this means studying seed dispersal: measuring seed properties, dispersal distances, building models that incorporate wind dynamics or the movement of fruit-eating animals. I am also interested in the evolutionary dynamics of seed dispersal.
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For animals, it's about understanding their habitat preferences and navigation skills. I am, with colleagues at Lund and Stockholm universities, developing a framework to account for insect vision in predicting insect habitat preferences whithin the Swedish VR funded "INVISMO" project.
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Inferring mechanisms from patterns
A large part of my research consists in developing metrics of distribution changes, to detect by how much species are moving. I can then relate these changes to life-history traits.
Another approach is to develop Species Distribution Models (SDMs). I try to build them in a way that accounts for population dynamics, dispersal and biotic interactions. I also try to quantify the uncertainty associated with biodiversity predictions. To do so, Bayesian Hierarchical Models offer great flexibility.
I currently work on two main systems: forest-farmland interface in Sweden and Ireland, and the Swedish Arctic, where climate change is quickly affecting plant communities. In that context, I am more and more interested in combining models with experimental approaches to better inform our understanding of ecosystem dynamics, as we have been doing in the SFI/DfE funded Grassland Resilience project.
Collaborations: Regan Early (University of Exeter); Åke Lindström, Henrik Smith, Johan Ekroos (Lund University), Keith Larson (Umeå University), Andrew MacDougall (University of Guelph), Mark Emmerson (QUB), Jon Yearsley (UCD).
A large part of my research consists in developing metrics of distribution changes, to detect by how much species are moving. I can then relate these changes to life-history traits.
Another approach is to develop Species Distribution Models (SDMs). I try to build them in a way that accounts for population dynamics, dispersal and biotic interactions. I also try to quantify the uncertainty associated with biodiversity predictions. To do so, Bayesian Hierarchical Models offer great flexibility.
I currently work on two main systems: forest-farmland interface in Sweden and Ireland, and the Swedish Arctic, where climate change is quickly affecting plant communities. In that context, I am more and more interested in combining models with experimental approaches to better inform our understanding of ecosystem dynamics, as we have been doing in the SFI/DfE funded Grassland Resilience project.
Collaborations: Regan Early (University of Exeter); Åke Lindström, Henrik Smith, Johan Ekroos (Lund University), Keith Larson (Umeå University), Andrew MacDougall (University of Guelph), Mark Emmerson (QUB), Jon Yearsley (UCD).
Managing species and landscapes
Models are great tools to test management options. I use agent-based models to simulate ecological dynamics (e.g., trees colonising a grassland), and human actions (e.g., foresters cutting down the trees).
I try to develop strategies to control the spread of invasive plants. This requires to not only account for important ecological drivers (such as environmental heterogeneity and dispersal), but also social and economical aspects (managers' decisions, cost of intervention).
Collaborations: Bruce Maxwell (Montana State University), Anibal Pauchard (Universidad de Conception), Martin Nunez (CONICET), Justin Travils, Xavier Lambin (University of Aberdeen) and many others from the Newton Fund CONTAIN project (Invasive species in Latin America)
Models are great tools to test management options. I use agent-based models to simulate ecological dynamics (e.g., trees colonising a grassland), and human actions (e.g., foresters cutting down the trees).
I try to develop strategies to control the spread of invasive plants. This requires to not only account for important ecological drivers (such as environmental heterogeneity and dispersal), but also social and economical aspects (managers' decisions, cost of intervention).
Collaborations: Bruce Maxwell (Montana State University), Anibal Pauchard (Universidad de Conception), Martin Nunez (CONICET), Justin Travils, Xavier Lambin (University of Aberdeen) and many others from the Newton Fund CONTAIN project (Invasive species in Latin America)
I am also interested in the consequences land management for biodiversity. I currently work on two aspects of management:
- clearcuts as rescue habitat for threatened farmland birds (see projects)
- stree trees as green islands in cities
- Collaborations: Yann Clough, Åke Lindström, Henrik Smith (Lund University), Tancredi Caruso (QUB)
